Top Pair, Weak Kicker, Check-Raise

Next one: Villain is of the clueless kind. Shoves marginally, plays his strong hands slow, chases draws relentlessly, minimal hand selection.

Villain ($1,800)
Hero ($1,200)

Hero posts (SB) $10
Villain posts (BB) $20

Dealt to Hero Kc 7h
call,
Villain raises to $40
call,

I limped for the first time in the match, and he obviously wasn't having any of that. Calling the minraise is of course trivial.

FLOP ($80) Ks 2c 4c

Villain bets $20
Hero raises to $80

I read minbets like this generally as weak, and as I have TP, I raise it to protect and charge draws and worse pairs.

Villain raises to $320

Whoops. Big raise. Trying to scare me? Has a huge hand? lets have a look at this, then.

I can see him trying this with 2 clubs, OESD, Kx, 2 pair, a set, any pocket from 55-AA and 22. Also a fair amount of junk, 2 broadway etc. He IS clueless, afterall.

Without the random junk, that gives me an E of 59.2% .... quite alot. Lets take out all the PP's under the K apart from the sets: still 57.9% ... Without FD's which aren't at least J high: still 53.2%
Right, only A or K high FD's, Sets and Kings, then: Still 49.8%. Still a shove with dead money in the pot. Taking out any unsuited Kings with a worse kicker than mine: $47.6%. Still an instant shove. I just cannot narrow down the range enough, I'm shipping it in.


Hero raises to $1,160
Villain calls $840

TURN ($2,400) Ks 2c 4c Qd
RIVER ($2,400) Ks 2c 4c Qd Jh

Villain shows Kd 5d
(Flop 22.2%, Turn 13.6%)

Hero shows Kc 7h
(Flop 77.8%, Turn 86.4%)

Hero wins $2,400

The Formula ... and stuff

So, just so I don't forget:

dead money*f + (1-f)*[pot i can win*E - what it costs me to lose] > 0

where f is fold equity and E is equity.

And calling a shove, I can leave all that larking about with f out, and simply say:

pot i can win*E - what it costs me to lose > 0

If my E is over 0.5, I'm a happy camper anyway, as then my shoving is profitable, no matter what.

All I have to know, apparently.

Hand #1

Ok, first hand. In the blog. And in the tournament.

Table TURBO NLH Heads Up 50 237747401 (Real Money)
Seat 3 is the button
Seat 3: Hero ( $1500.00 USD )
Seat 8: Villain ( $1500.00 USD )
Hero posts small blind [$10.00 USD].
Villain posts big blind [$20.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Hero [ 6c 7h ]
Hero raises to [$60.00 USD]
Villain calls [$60.00 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 6d, 4h, 5d ] Pot: 120
Villain checks
Hero bets [$100.00 USD]
Villain raises to [$420.00 USD]

Eeew. First hand and he's flippin c/r'd me. Trouble is, I've hit this pretty damn hard aswell. He's a decent aggro oppoenent, and since its the first hand, lets say he's only doing this with a real hand. Overpairs, Straights, Pairs + OESDs, FD's at least J high, sets, 2 pair. All that gives me an Equity of 43% on the flop
with The Formula, that makes

640*f + (1-f)*[3000*0.43 - 1340] > 0
640*f + (1-f)*[-50] > 0
640*f - 50 + 50*f > 0
690*f > 50
f > 50/690 = 7.24%

So yeah, no way I'm folding that even vs a tight range. He only has to fold 7% of the time to make it profitable, which i can see happening. Well, either that or him having junk and feeling cocky.

Hero raises to [$1440.00 USD]
Villain calls [$1020.00 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 3h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 9h ]
Hero wins $3000.00 USD from main pot
Villain shows [5s, 4s ]

Hi, etc

Hi.

I'm on the worst run in years. Really REALLY bad. This is me trying to figure out if I am awful at HUSNG's (my bread and butter for ages), or if variance is simply raping me.

This blog will contain:

- hands, stoved, calced etcetcetc.
- me venting over imbeciles, idiots, plain braindead fools playing atrociously - I have to, it keeps me sane
- probably quite a bit of profanity - deal with it

Goals of this blog:

- Convincing myself that I don't suck.
- Providing a resource for people who are actually interested in this "numbers" stuff
- Providing an outlet where i can curse the muppets i should actually be loving, but am unable to due to being on the wrong side of variance.
- Also of course providing an outlet to laugh at the same muppets when I'm on the right side of said variance
- Maybe even improving my game and that of the readers - should there be any.
- 1 - 2 hands should be posted per day I am playing